Perioperative stroke and associated mortality after noncardiac, nonneurologic surgery.

BACKGROUND Stroke is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and occurs in the perioperative period. The authors studied the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of perioperative stroke using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. METHODS Data on 523,059 noncardiac, nonneurologic patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were analyzed for the current study. The incidence of perioperative stroke was identified. Logistic regression was applied to a derivation cohort of 350,031 patients to generate independent predictors of stroke and develop a risk model. The risk model was subsequently applied to a validation cohort of 173,028 patients. The role of perioperative stroke in 30-day mortality was also assessed. RESULTS The incidence of perioperative stroke in both the derivation and validation cohorts was 0.1%. Multivariate analysis revealed the following independent predictors of stroke in the derivation cohort: age ≥ 62 yr, history of myocardial infarction within 6 months before surgery, acute renal failure, history of stroke, dialysis, hypertension, history of transient ischemic attack, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, current tobacco use, and body mass index 35-40 kg/m² (protective). These risk factors were confirmed in the validation cohort. Surgical procedure also influenced the incidence of stroke. Perioperative stroke was associated with an 8-fold increase in perioperative mortality within 30 days (95% CI, 4.6-12.6). CONCLUSIONS Noncardiac, nonneurologic surgery carries a risk of perioperative stroke, which is associated with higher mortality. The models developed in this study may be informative for clinicians and patients regarding risk and prevention of this complication.